Rate Lock Advisory

Wednesday, February 8th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened flat with nothing to drive trading this morning. Stocks are showing fairly minor losses with the Dow down 37 points and the Nasdaq down 79 points. The bond market is currently unchanged from yesterday’s close (3.67%), which should keep this morning’s mortgage rates close to yesterday’s early pricing.

0/32


Bonds


30 yr - 3.67%

37


Dow


34,118

79


NASDAQ


12,034

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

High


Neutral


Fed Talk

Yesterday’s afternoon trading was heavily influenced by Fed Chairman Powell’s words during his public speaking engagement in Washington D.C. The markets initially reacted favorably to his comments that indicated inflation was starting to ease, but that was followed by a negative move when he warned that stronger than expected economic data in the future could lead to more Fed rate hikes than the markets are currently expecting. We saw some lenders revise rates intraday as the markets whipsawed back and forth. The net impact on mortgage rates can be labeled neutral though.

Low


Neutral


Domestic Political Issues

As expected, President Biden’s State of the Union speech has had a little impact on this morning’s trading.

Medium


Unknown


Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release this morning. We do have the 10-year Treasury Note auction taking place that may come into play during early afternoon trading. This type of sale gives us an indication of demand for longer-term securities, such as mortgage-related bonds. If it is met with a strong demand from investors, we should see the bond market move higher after results are posted at 1:00 PM ET. However, a lackluster interest from buyers, particularly international investors, may lead to broader bond selling that translates into an upward afternoon revision to mortgage pricing before the end of the day. This process will be repeated again tomorrow when 30-year Bonds are sold.

Medium


Unknown


Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Tomorrow only has last week’s unemployment figures scheduled and the 30-year Treasury Bond sale as potential influences on mortgage rates. We will get the weekly unemployment update at 8:30 AM ET. It is expected to show 194,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, up from the previous week’s 183,000. Rising claims is a sign of employment sector weakness, meaning the higher the number, the better the news it is for mortgage pricing. While this is only a weekly snapshot that usually has a minimal impact on rates, last Friday’s surprisingly strong monthly Employment report should cause this release to draw a little more attention in the markets than it normally does.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.